General Joseph Aoun: The Soldier Holding Lebanon Together

General Joseph Aoun: Lebanon’s Unyielding Guardian in Crisis

In a nation fractured by sectarian strife, economic collapse, and geopolitical chess games, one figure stands resolute: General Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). As Lebanon grapples with its darkest hour, Aoun’s leadership offers a flicker of hope amidst chaos. This blog post explores his journey, strategies, and the daunting path ahead.

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Forged in Fire: The Making of Lebanon’s Reluctant Savior (1957–2017)

A Childhood Shaped by War

Joseph Aoun, whose formative years began in 1957, experienced a life deeply shaped by Lebanon's enduring strife. From the 1958 Civil War’s sectarian clashes to the 1975–1990 Lebanese Civil War, his formative years were a crucible of survival. As a young soldier, Aoun witnessed atrocities that shaped his pragmatic worldview:

• Karantina Massacre (1976): Palestinian militants slaughtered Christian civilians, searing the cost of division into Aoun’s memory.
• Damour Massacres: Aoun helped evacuate survivors as villages were razed, learning the human toll of unchecked militias.
• 1982 Israeli Invasion: Stationed in Sidon, he developed a deep skepticism of foreign interventions, a stance that defines his leadership today.

“We didn’t choose sides—we chose survival.” — Aoun to French journalists, 2020

For a deeper understanding of this turbulent era, explore our internal guide. Lebanon's Civil War Legacy

The Officer’s Ascent

Aoun’s military career reflects his commitment to neutrality and discipline. During the Civil War, he commanded outposts in Aley, mediating between Druze, Christian, and Syrian forces. His “Neutral Enforcement” doctrine—using minimal force to de-escalate—became his hallmark. Post-war, under Syrian occupation, Aoun rebuilt LAF intelligence networks and established outposts after Israel’s 2000 withdrawal. His leadership during the 2006 July War, securing UNIFIL supply lines, cemented his reputation as a steady hand.

Learn more about Lebanon’s complex history at Britannica’s Lebanese Civil War Overview.

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Governing the Ungovernable: The LAF Under Aoun (2017–2024)

The Last Functional Institution

Aoun's tenure since 2017 has witnessed the LAF evolve into Lebanon's operational center of power amidst financial disintegration and governmental paralysis. His innovative solutions include:

• Salary Crisis (2019–2024): With banks collapsing, Aoun introduced a barter system—soldiers received food baskets, gas vouchers, and medical care. The LAF Credit Union allowed dollar withdrawals at a 50% loss, far better than the 90% loss in civilian banks.
• 2020 Beirut Port Explosion: Aoun deployed 5,000 troops within 90 minutes, securing key sites and preventing looting. His forensic team protected evidence, tracing ammonium nitrate to Syrian networks, showcasing his commitment to transparency.

Hezbollah Containment

Navigating Hezbollah’s influence is Aoun’s toughest challenge. His strategy balances pragmatism and control:

• Rules of Engagement: Defensive arms are permitted in border areas, but unauthorized weapons in cities are confiscated.
• Coordination: Weekly meetings with Hezbollah officials and joint anti-ISIS operations maintain uneasy cooperation.

Compare this to Iraq’s militia challenges in The Washington Institute’s Analysis. For more on Hezbollah’s role, see our internal guide. Iraq's Leadership Challenges

The Geopolitical Tightrope

Aoun’s diplomacy is a masterclass in balance:

• United States: Accepts $120M in annual aid (e.g., Humvees, TOW missiles) and CIA training but resists labeling the LAF as Hezbollah collaborators.
• Iran: Permits limited IRGC weapon transfers via Syria while maintaining Syrian military ties.
• Gulf States: Secured $500M from Saudi Arabia (2022) and facilitated Qatar-mediated prisoner swaps.

“We take help where we can get it—but we take orders from no one.” — Aoun to Arab diplomats, 2021

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The Impossible Presidency: Aoun’s Potential Transition (2024–)

A Toxic Inheritance

Lebanon’s presidency is a poisoned chalice. The next leader faces:

• Financial Apocalypse: The Central Bank has $120,000 in reserves, $72B in missing deposits, and a lira at 100,000:1 to the dollar.
• Sectoral Collapse: 80% of medicines are unavailable, 55% of students have dropped out, and blackouts last 23 hours daily.
• Constitutional Gridlock: A two-thirds parliamentary quorum is often unattainable, with sectarian vetoes paralyzing decisions.

For a detailed breakdown of Lebanon’s economic woes, see World Bank’s Lebanon Report.

Aoun’s Reform Blueprint

If Aoun assumes the presidency, his policies could include:

• Hezbollah Integration:
  • 2025: Register all heavy weapons.
  • 2026: Incorporate 30% of fighters into the LAF.
  • 2028: Full disarmament.
• Border Security: UN-monitored towers on the Israeli frontier and joint Russian-Lebanese patrols on the Syrian border.
• Economic Revival:
  • UAE-funded solar microgrids and TotalEnergies gas plants for electricity.
  • A tiered banking haircut (30–80% based on deposit size) and a new digital lira pegged to a basket currency.

Explore Lebanon’s energy potential in Reuters’ Report on Gas Fields.

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The Regional Domino Effect

Stakeholder Interests

Lebanon’s fate hinges on regional powers:

Actor	Interests	Red Lines
Israel	Gas field security	No Hezbollah missiles
Iran	Arms corridor to Hezbollah	No Sunni-dominated government
Saudi	Contain Hezbollah	No Iranian dominance
France	Protect francophone elite	No partition

Scenarios

• Best Case (15%): IMF reforms, Hezbollah demobilization, and gas exports by 2030.
• Realistic Case (35%): Partial reforms, ongoing collapse, and 1 million more emigrate.
• Worst Case (50%): LAF fractures, Hezbollah seizes power, and Israel launches preemptive strikes.

For more on the regional implications, check out Carnegie Endowment’s Analysis of Lebanon’s Crisis.

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Conclusion: Lebanon’s Last Hope?

General Joseph Aoun embodies Lebanon’s tragic past and fragile future. His potential presidency could be a final chance for reform or the prelude to dissolution. In a region of strongmen, Aoun stands apart—an honest soldier who wields power reluctantly but decisively.

Join the Discussion: Can Aoun save Lebanon, or is international intervention necessary? Share your thoughts below!

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Deep Dive Resources

• LAF Structure & Challenges
• Lebanon’s Financial Autopsy
• Hezbollah’s Military Evolution
• UNHCR Syrian Refugee Crisis
• Lebanon Gas Field Developments